Hope and the Science of Baseball
A scientist or a Cubs fan is, by nature, an optimist. But, is there also a place in science for hope? If you are talking about the science of baseball, then toss rationality because the answer is absolutely yes. Hope and optimism are related but distinct entities. You can have one or the other, both or none. Hope is a positive state of being resulting from mindfulness of the present and faith in the future. Optimism is the power of positive thinking. The hope for any Cubs fan – or a Cubs fan scientist like me - is a day at a beautiful ivy covered ballpark, then an October full of baseball.
Baseball is a game of statistics, physics and psychology. Baseball teams are now built with advanced analytics, not just scouting. Hail to the statistician and the scientific method! Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein, has raised the bar for which all future teams will probably be measured. He didn’t just hope he could achieve his goal; he acted, calculated and experimented his way to the best team in baseball this year.
Statistics don’t lie. They are based on the science of mathematics.
The 2016 Cubs are by all measures the team of the century. If they continue winning at the same pace, they can target 103 season victories. By statistical analysis, these Cubs have outplayed all their opponents this season. Their current team batting average of .255 is 45 points higher that opponents. They have 30 more home runs and a whopping 137-walk differential. Carefully selected and trained like thoroughbreds, these young players demonstrate the power of analytical science to create a cohesive winning machine. Whereas the team statistics have reaffirmed my belief in the power of science, the team performance has actually strengthened my hope in the human element, the aspect many scientists neglect when viewing results.
Science in any form has yet to predict future events.
We can use scientific methods to develop winning ball clubs, design better equipment, and even enhance players’ psychological well being, but not predict outcomes. This is where hope and science intermingle in the minds of a Cubs Fan. I’ve always been optimistic that the Cubs will play baseball and the view from the right field bleachers will remain one of the pillars of sports. But, honestly, I wasn’t overly hopeful that one day we might rock the whole city with “Go Cubs Go”. My Boys in Blue are giving me the inspiration to view the world as hopeful again. When we can change the fate from “The Curse of the Billy Goat” to the “Team of the Century”, even I can believe the here and now is real and the future promising. Hope and science win.
Whether or not this team of young, energetic ballplayers can break the long drought for the North Siders is immaterial to me; the hope they have already provided will sustain me for the difficulties ahead. Science may have built this team but hope, heart and home runs will keep me watching and hoping the whole season. Holy Cow. Harry!
Further reading:
Snyder, C.R. (2000). Hypothesis: There is Hope. In C.R. Snyder (Eds.), Handbook of Hope Theory, Measures and Applications (pp.3-21). San Diego: Academic Press.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-best-way-to-build-a-major-league-baseball-team/